Vietnam’s real GDP has extended its momentum well above the median consensus views of international organisations.
Vietnam’s economy demonstrated robust growth in 2024, with real GDP expanding by 7.09%, surpassing both the 5.1% growth in 2023 and the official target of 6.5%.
This performance was driven by strong industrial production and services sectors, which contributed 35% and 48% respectively to the 7.55% year-on-year GDP growth in Q4.
A significant factor in this economic upturn was the expansion of external trade. Exports increased by 14% over the year, reversing a 4.6% contraction in 2023, while imports rose by 16.1%. This resulted in a trade surplus of approximately $23.9 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year of surplus and providing stability to the Vietnamese dong exchange rate.
Looking ahead, the National Assembly has set a GDP growth target of 6.5% to 7% for 2025. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has expressed ambitions for an 8% expansion, emphasizing the need for accelerated public investment disbursement to enhance infrastructure and attract further investments.
However, achieving this ambitious goal may be challenging, considering the disciplined fiscal approach and current public expenditure trends.
Analysts, such as those from United Overseas Bank (UOB), have raised their GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 to 7%, citing strong momentum from domestic drivers like production, consumer spending, and increased visitor arrivals, particularly in the first half of the year. Nonetheless, they caution that uncertainties in the trade outlook, especially potential frictions with major partners like the United States, could pose risks in the latter half of 2025.
In summary, Vietnam’s economy is poised to continue its positive growth trajectory into 2025, supported by strong industrial and service sectors, as well as sustained external trade. While the government’s ambitious targets reflect confidence in the country’s economic resilience, careful monitoring of global trade dynamics and effective public investment will be crucial to achieving these goals.
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